Ukraine War Update – October 1, 2024
On early Thursday morning , September 26, Starokostyantyniv (Old Constantine) airfield in western Ukraine was hit by at least four Russian Kinzhal 47M2 hypersonic missiles. This was a precision strike launched from Russian Aerospace Force MiG-31Ks or Su-34 attack bombers or both. At over 5,000 mph, Kinzhal missiles have a 300-mile range and are extremely difficult to detect before their devastating impact. Their course may be adjusted inflight. The Kinzhal 47M2 missile is just short of 24-feet long and weighs approximately 9,500 pounds. It normally carries conventional high explosive charges but can be modified to carry low-yield nuclear weapons. Since Kinzhal missiles cost $10 million each, they are not wasted on trivial targets. The MiG-31K itself has a top speed of 1,900 mph and a range of 750 miles. Designated “Foxhound” by NATO Intelligence, it is the fastest operational combat aircraft in the world. The Su-34 (Fullback) has a maximum speed of 1,200 mph and similar combat range but can carry heavier bomb and missile loads.
The September 26 air-launched missile attack was immediately preceded by a “swarm” of Russian UAV-drones designed to damage smaller targets and confuse Ukrainian air-defense systems.
According to retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor, author of several books on military operational strategies and a highly respected military analyst, the air-launched Kinzhal missiles destroyed four Ukrainian F-16s on the ground and killed 11 aircrew, maintenance, and technical and engineering support personnel. In addition, one Kinzhal missile destroyed a Ukrainian Su-24 modified to carry the British Stormshadow missile and a storage building containing 12 Stormshadow missiles. These cost about $2.5 million each. The Su-24 may have been destroyed on the runway.
Moreover, smaller Russian glide-bombs destroyed an area containing approximately 250 high-tech Ukrainian UAV-drones.
According to Alexander Mercouris, British attorney, and highly reputed political analyst of the Ukraine War, the Russians launched two waves of Kinzhal Missiles: a first wave of three missiles and a second wave of four missiles. According to several of his sources, these two waves may have destroyed a total of 5 to 9 F-16s. Mercouris remains skeptical about numbers over 5.
So far, neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians have confirmed any of this, but such confirmations would severely damage the Ukrainian narrative that Ukraine has a realistic chance to win the war. This Ukrainian narrative is especially important in persuading the U.S. and NATO that they should continue to invest billions of dollars into the Ukraine War. Contrary evidence would be particularly embarrassing to Ukrainian President Zelensky, since he has been in the U.S. trying to convince U.S. and NATO officials to give him more money and allow him to hit deep Russian targets with Stormshadow missiles. He will apparently get $8.0 billion more, but most of this is to repay U.S. defense firms for equipment already sent to Ukraine—much of it already destroyed by the Russians. He will probably get only about $1.2 billion.
The Kyiv Post wrote they could neither confirm nor deny damages done to F-16s, Su-24s or missiles at Starokostyantyniv airfield, only that there were explosions and smoke there. According to the Post writer, the Ukrainian Center for Counter Disinformation (CCD) categorically denied the “Russian Reports” on its Telegram channel and called them “fake”—but there were no Russian government reports. Perhaps CCD was referring to Pro-Russian Telegram posts. The Post writer suggested reports of significant damage to F-16s and missiles might be Russian disinformation.
Curiously, the Post writer included a Telegram post account quoting bitter remarks by the wife of a U.S. military advisor, “Steven,” killed at Starokostyantyniv. She bitterly lamented not knowing how they were going to get her husband and the other dead men back to their families. She mentions “foreign instructor program” and “five F-16s.” Was this Telegram post from an alleged fighter-bomber military blogger genuine or concocted propaganda?
The Post writer also commented that now that the Netherlands had retired its 45-year-old F-16s and acquired F-35s, perhaps Ukraine could have a total of 24 F-16s. I believe NATO has promised Ukraine a total of 18. The first and possibly another F-16 was lost on August 26.
Regarding the September 26 missile strike, consistent with past practice, the Russians do not usually release news that might compromise weapons technologies, tactics, or strategies unless it is clearly to their advantage. They are typically conservative in news releases. Contrary to a counterproductive Western myth, Russians tend to be straight-forward, if sometimes blunt, in what they say, and rarely risk bluffing. The Putin regime has so far proved very deliberate and precise in what they say. Their decisions are usually based on thorough analysis.
According to the Moscow Times, the Ukrainian strong-hold and fortress city of Ughledar (population 14,000 in 2022) in southern Donetsk is now surrounded by the Russians. It has been defended by the formidable 72nd Ukrainian Brigade against the Russians for 31 months. According to Macgregor, the Russians are offering them surrender terms by pamphlet and perhaps by negotiation. If Ughledar falls, the only remaining comparable stronghold in Donetsk state will be Pokrovsk (2022 population 60,000). It, too, is already almost surrounded. Beyond Pokrovsk is a broad and sparsely fortified pathway to the Dnieper River and Kyiv.
The recent Ukrainian penetration into Russia’s Kursk state has turned out to be a disaster. Most of the 14,000 troops committed to it have been killed, wounded, or captured, and almost all their equipment has been destroyed.
Most informed observers such as Macgregor now estimate over 600,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war. Former Swiss Strategic Intelligence Chief Jacques Baud recently estimated that Russian killed were only about 10 percent of that. Macgregor and others appear to agree. The Russians have an artillery advantage in both equipment and munitions of at least eight to one. They also have a considerably better system of removing and treating wounded immediately, which has saved many lives. The Russians have near compete Air Power and Air Defense dominance. They also now have more than a three to one numerical advantage, and Ukraine is literally running out of soldiers. Civilian casualties have been surprisingly low compared to World War II standards. Statista Research estimates the accumulated civilian death toll based on United Nations data was about 12,000 as of July 2024
In July 2023, Reuters estimated the massive refugee flight from Ukraine and loss of territory to Russian had dropped the population of Ukraine to less than 28 million. The population in 2000 was 42 million.
The European members of NATO and the European Union are suffering from the war and political support for it is waning. According to Mercouris, a German poll indicated 60 percent of German voters want no part of giving more weapons to Ukraine and want to get out. Recent elections in Germany, France, and the Netherlands confirm the same sentiment.
The origin of the Ukraine War has been misrepresented by the Biden government and especially now Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris. I will cover the true origins of the Ukraine War and uncover its deceptive narrative in my October 7 article.
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East. 
