Oreshnik Hypersonic Russian Missile Strikes Ukraine

Dangerous Biden Missile Escalation Threatens Global Conflict

On Novembers 21, the Russians launched a new experimental hypersonic missile, called Oreshnik, into eastern Ukraine and hit an industrial military target near Dnipro. The Oreshnik missile was launched from a Russian missile base near Astrakhan in southern Russia. It traveled 772 miles and hit precisely on target, according to the Russians. The Oreshnik missile  was armed with conventional warheads but can also carry nuclear weapons. Both the U.S. and Ukraine were given a 30-minute warning. According to Ukrainian intelligence, it was 15 minutes between launch and hitting its target. That would have given it an average speed from launch to impact of 3,087 miles per hour, or over four times the speed of sound (761 mph). The top speed of the missile is claimed to be Mach 10, or 7,610 mph or 1.5 miles per second. This is undetectable and unstoppable by any known anti-missile defense system. The missile impact was filmed by Russian intelligence and is available for view on YouTube.

Oreshnik is also a MIRV weapon that can carry multiple warheads, which can be programmed to hit multiple targets and make course changes in flight. It is also capable of trajectories low enough to make detection extremely difficult. Oreshnik is classified by both the U.S. and Russia as an IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), which has a theoretical strategic range of 600 to 3,300 miles. Well, we know it can travel at least 772 miles. The range of a missile is also dependent on the weight and size of its warhead. You can fire a golf ball a lot further than a 6,000-pound Russian super-bomb. The Oreshnik can probably hit most European targets from positions deep in Russia. The Russians also have other hypersonic missiles in their current operational inventory, probably including ICBMs with ranges far in excess of 3,300 miles.   

Oreshnik was designed primarily as a high-precision conventional warfare weapon with modular adaptability in both manufacturing and combat missions. Its conventional explosive punch is extraordinarily powerful and based on new technology, but it is not a weapon of mass destruction. Having been successfully tested, Oreshnik has now entered into a phase of mass production.

Russian translations of Oreshnik to English vary, leaving the meaning somewhat mysterious. Oreshnik is sometimes associated with the hazel group of plants. Oreshnik may also be translated as hazel tree, hazelnut, and nutcracker. It may also imply that it has a mix of weaponry. The weapon is also thought to have deep target penetration capabilities. The “nik” ending implies that it is an agent in doing something,

The purpose of the Oreshnik hit was not strategic damage to Ukrainian military targets. It was simply a demonstration of superior Russian missile technology over anything Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO now possess  or will possess for the foreseeable future.  It is a message to Biden and NATO something like “Don’t mess with Texas.”  In this case it is “don’t mess with  Russian homeland security.” This issue had been raised by Biden’s permission on  November 17 to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles into the Russian homeland.

Following President Biden’s November 17 approval for Ukraine to use American missiles on targets inside Russia, on November 19, Ukraine launched six American made ATACAMS (Army Tactical Missile System) with a range of 180 miles into the Bryansk Oblast in Russia. The actual distance transversed was 75 miles.  Five were brought down by Russian Air Defense weapons or electronic jamming, and the sixth was hit, but debris hit a building. There were no casualties.

The next day, the Ukrainian Air Force  launched 10 British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, allegedly carried by five Su-24 attack-bombers into a Kursk Oblast Russian military headquarters at Marino with results not fully known, but some Russians were killed. The Storm Shadow cruise missile has a potential range of 340 miles, but this was only 25 miles. According to the Forbes source, these Storm Shadows carried 880-pound warheads. However, in a previous article Forbes reported that only eight of 25 Ukrainian Su-24s were left in June 2023.  Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that these were acts of war by the U.S. and UK, and further escalation of missile warfare into the Russian homeland could touch off global war, including nuclear warfare. Operating ATACAMS and Storm Shadow cruise missiles requires American and British support including intelligence, radar, and reconnaissance systems. Thus Putin asserts that the U.S. and UK are active participants at war with Russia. The U.S. and UK and perhaps France are treading on dangerous ground administering mere pin-pricks to Russia but risking war with calamitous damage to NATO nations involved.

According to former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, Ukraine was given 50 ATACAMS, but has already lost 18. Retired Army LC Daniel Davis believes that they may have had 50 to 100. They may also have less than 50 British Storm Shadows. The French version is called SCALP-EG.

Air and missile defense became an increasingly emphasized Russian specialty early in the Cold War. The U.S. has concentrated on other aspects of warfare. Some intelligence and military analysts, including Larry Johnson and Daniel Davis, have worried that Russia now has a significant advantage in a nuclear war because of superior air and missile defense. The Russians have more nuclear weapons and can employ them on operational hypersonic missiles. In February, the Russians began using its conventional  Mach 9 hypersonic Zircon  missiles in Ukraine,

The Russians have both air and air defense dominance in Ukraine. Ukraine has been promised 80 F-16s from Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway. However, several of the first Danish F-16s given to Ukraine have been lost. Ukrainian use of them has since been cautious. Most of them are now in Rumania.  

The Widespread Western propaganda that Ukraine is winning the war or has any chance to win the war is balderdash. The Ukrainian Army, which was once the second largest army in Europe and the best equipped and trained army in Europe has suffered over 1.5 million casualties, of which over 600,000 are dead and that number is increasing by nearly a thousand per day. The Ukrainian government and economy are on U.S. funded life support. According to the Pentagon, the U.S. has already poured over $183 billion into the Ukraine War, and economic sanctions against Russia have backfired. The Russian economy is thriving with 3.9 percent GDP growth expected in 2024. Russia now has the fourth largest GDP in the world based on PPP (purchasing power parity) GDP, following only Chine, the U.S. and India. The project to weaken and cause regime change in Russia using Ukraine as a proxy has pushed Russia into a powerful alliance with China.

The Russian Army is now probably the most formidable in the world, as are its nuclear arsenal, air and missile defense, electronic countermeasure systems,  and military industrial production capacity.  Its Air and Naval forces are second in firepower only to the United States, and they may have reliability and technology advantages in some weapons systems. Pushing Russia to the brink of all-out conventional war or nuclear war to save face for the Biden Administration and NATO is an unconscionable, stupid idea. The Russian Duma, National Security Committee, and President Vladimir Putin have recently met in emergency sessions and lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons because of Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles to hit targets within Russia. The recent ATACAMS and Storm Shadow attacks on the Russian homeland have raised the tension even further.

According to a New York Post, November 19, 2024, article an August through October Gallup poll in Ukraine now shows that 52 percent of Ukrainian adults want a negotiated peace with Russia. Only 38 percent are for continuing the war to a Ukrainian victory. This poll did not include the heavily Russian-ethnic oblasts of Lugansk and Crimea, where there is strong sentiment against the Ukrainian government. A majority of those who want a negotiated peace are also willing to give up Ukrainian territory. However, most of the territory that might be lost are Russian-speaking and pro-Russian oblasts in eastern and southern Ukraine. No region now has more than 40 percent support for continuing the war to Ukrainian victory. Support is 40 percent in the west, 39 percent in Kyiv Oblast, and only 27 percent in eastern oblasts.

A July 2024 Pew Survey on support for Ukrainian President Zelensky reflected falling support for the Ukraine War.  Only 48 percent of Ukrainians indicated support for Zelensky. This is down from 72 percent in February 2022, and 63 percent in 2023. The same Pew survey found that only 48 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Zelensky regarding the Ukraine War. Strongest opposition is among conservative Republicans. Sweden had the highest approval rate of Zelensky with 80 percent. The British were second with 72 percent; and the Netherlands third with 66 percent. But only 48 percent in Poland have confidence in Zelensky. Of 35 nations surveyed, the average approval rate for Zelensky is only 40 percent. Only 14 percent of Hungarians and 27 percent of Greeks support Zelensky. While 54 percent of Germans indicated confidence in Zelensky in the June Pew survey, more recent elections in Germany indicated strong increases in support for the anti-Ukraine-support Alternatives for Deutschland (AfD) party. By contrast, the pro-Ukraine German Social Democrats and Greens suffered significant losses.  Conservative parties in Europe tend to oppose their nation’s support for the Ukraine War. Only 43 percent of French and 39 percent of Italians have a favorable view of Zelensky. Low Zelensky/Ukraine support was found in Israel, 40 percent; Brazil, 29 percent; and India, 28 percent.

President Trump has promised to end the Ukraine War quickly. However, the Biden Administration has made peace much more difficult by allowing American missiles to be fired into the Russian homeland. There are only about 60 days until Trump’s inauguration. That is an incentive for Putin and Trump to be cautious and patient, but every day there is a roll of the dice that Biden and his “ship of fools” may wreck civilization.

“Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad,” seems an appropriate warning.