Venezuela Briefing 9-15-2025

Serious Potential Conflict between US and China

Venezuela has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world. With over 304 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, Venezuela has almost 18 percent of the world’s total of 1.72 trillion barrels.

To give some global perspective, according to the US Energy Information Administration, here are the top ten: Venezuela 18%; Saudi Arabia 16%; Iran 12%;  Iraq 12%;  Canada 10%; United Arab Emirates (UAE) 6%;  Kuwait 6%;  Russia 5%;  the United States 4%, and Libya 3%. China, with the second largest population in the world, 1.41 billion people, has less than 2%. India, now with the largest population, 1.46 billion, in the world has only 0.27%. The United States now has the third largest population in the world, including illegal immigrants, at 347 million.

Only crude oil reserves that are economically profitable are counted. As extraction technology improves, recognized crude oil reserves increase. Liquid gas, oil sands and oil shale are not presently included in these figures, although they are profitable in Canada, the United States, and Russia. The United States, Russia, and China have formidable known shale oil reserves. More than half of all U.S. oil production now comes from shale. Most Venezuelan crude oil is relatively heavy and more costly to extract. When new technology made the heavy oil in the Orinoco River Basin of Venezuela profitable by 2010, proven crude oil reserves increased dramatically. 

The population of Venezuela in 2025 has been estimated at 28.5 million. This is down from 30.5 million in 2023. The population has declined by more than seven million since 2016. It has been estimated that about 22 percent of Venezuelans are now living abroad. Spanish is the official language. There are about 700,000 Venezuelan immigrants in the United States.

The capital of Venezuela, Caracas, has a population of 3.2 million and a metropolitan population of 5.0 million. It sits at a mountain elevation of 3,000 feet and overlooks the Caribbean Sea. Most of the population of Venezuela live in urban areas near the Caribbean or Atlantic. Venezuela is bordered on the west by Colombia, on the south by Brazil, on the northeast by Trinidad and Tobago, and on the east by Guyana.

According to the CIA Factbook, Venezuela has about 150,000 men and women in its active Armed Forces, including Army, Navy,  and Air Force. It has another 225,000 in the National Militia reserves, and another 100,000 in National Police. Their equipment is mostly Chinese and Russian. The main combat aircraft are 22 Russian Su-30 multirole fighters, which are roughly equivalent to US F-15s and F-16s.

According to the Harvard-Kennedy School of Government, in 1970, Venezuela was the richest country in South America and one of the 20 richest countries in the world. In 1973, Venezuela voted to nationalize its oil industry. A 2001 law limited foreign investment in Venezuela.

The estimated GDP (PPP) in 2025 was only $223 billion, per capita only $8,397, ranking 133 of 194 nations. Venezuela has as market based mixed economy with the private sector dominating with about two-thirds of GDP. The  Petroleum sector accounts for about one third of GDP, 80 percent of exports, and over half of government revenue.

Excess government spending and currency weakness in 2013 set the stage for economic crisis and collapse. The 2015 decline in oil prices plunged Venezuela into deep recession. This was followed by hyperinflation of 800 percent per year in 2016. By 2018, the hyperinflation was estimated at one million percent. GDP had contracted 35 percent. By 2022, 90 percent of the population were unable to meet basic nutrition needs, and 75 percent of the population were living in poverty and extreme hardships. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the Venezuelan inflation rate for 2025 will be more than 180 percent.

Violent crime became a dominant feature of Venezuelan life. According to World Population Review, Venezuela had the highest crime rate in the world in 2024 at 82.1 per 100,000. Over 200,000 people have been murdered there since 2015. The U.S. State Department advises against travel there, where robbery and kidnapping of foreign travelers is extremely common.  The Crime rate in the capital of Caracas is extraordinarily high at 122. A person is murdered in Venezuela every 21 minutes.

Tren de Aragua (Aragua Train) is a transnational criminal gang originating in Tocoron Prison in Aragua, Venezuela, in 2014. Its primary criminal economies are smuggling drugs and immigrants, human trafficking and sexual exploitation, prostitution, kidnapping, and extortion, but it engages in  a variety of criminal activities as it infiltrates communities, which it often comes to dominate. It is known for its violence and style of community dominance. Venezuelan Security Forces attempted to destroy Tren de Aragua it in 2023 but failed. Tren de Aragua has also engaged in political assassinations. There are at least 5,000 members in North and South America, with a growing presence in the United States. In January 2025 the U.S. government designated Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organization. The gang’s most intense activities seem to be in Colorado, New York, Pennsylvania, California, Florida, Texas, and Georgia.

Moreover, political corruption has been reputedly rampant since the election of former military officer Hugo Chavez in 1999. He was replaced by his Vice President, Nicolas Maduro, a former labor leader in 2013 who is still serving. Venezuela has a unicameral National Assembly, but both Chavez and Maduro have ruled with increasing authoritarian power, with election results considered suspicious. The media does not challenge Maduro. 

Maduro, representing the United Socialist Party, was elected for a third term in July 2024 with 52 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Edmundo Gonzales, the candidate of the Democratic Unitary Platform. The term is now 6  years and began in January 2025. The primary for the Democratic Unitary Platform had originally been won in October 2023 by Maria Corina Machado, but she was disqualified for 15 years by the Comptroller General for endorsing sanctions on Venezuela by the United States, the European Union, and four other countries. Machado denied the charges, but the ruling was approved by the Venezuelan Supreme Court. She was replaced by Corina Yoris, but she was refused registration as a candidate. Finally, Gonzales became the Unitary Platform candidate. He fled to Spain after the election. Machado is liberal on social issues, and was given extensive positive coverage by the New York Times and other U.S. media. Regardless, she was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by four Florida Republican members of Congress in 2024.

Many former intelligence and military officers and academics specializing in international relations and economics—both US and European—believe the CIA and its affiliated government organizations—USAID, NED, and numerous NGOs—funded and used means attempting to defeat Madura in the 2024 election. The CIA and affiliated organizations have attempted or achieved more than 80 foreign regime changes since 1947. These are often termed “color revolutions.” British MI6 intelligence is often also involved. The most notorious to date has been the ”Maidan Revolution” in Ukraine in 2014 that resulted in civil war, ultimately provoking a Russian intervention on February 24, 2022.   

About 93 percent of Venezuelans identity as Christians. About 81 percent specifically identify as Catholics, and 11 percent identify as Protestants. In 2011, 52 percent of Venezuelans classified themselves as multi-racial, while 44 percent are classified as white and about 4 percent African.

On September 1, the US Navy carried out an airstrike on a Venezuelan boat in the Southern  Caribbean, killing 11 people. The Trump Administration alleged that the boat was manned by Tren de Aragua on a drug mission. President Madura alleged this was untrue and the incident and buildup of US forces near Venezuela was part of a US plan for regime change in Venezuela.

In 2013, the People’s Republic of China introduced a global infrastructure strategy to invest in more than 150 countries and organizations. This is generally called the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and sometimes the Silk Road strategy.  Building development corridors of road, rail, energy, digital infrastructure, and port, aviation, and communication facilities and providing financing, technology, and expertise is both an economic growth strategy and political influence and leverage strategy. It is especially important to China because it provides greater access to natural resources. Chinese construction companies are generally used for BRI projects.  Critics warn that the possibility of excess debt can result in injuring a nation’s sovereignty. This is true of too much foreign leverage and influence for any reason. The American based IMF warns that about 40 percent of BRI recipients could become debt captives of China.  Nonetheless, BRI has enjoyed considerable success to date.  As a major economic, political, and military competitor of China, the United States has generally been opposed to Chinese BRI advancement.

China has taken considerable interest in expanding its economic connections to South America and especially Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela. China is now South America’s biggest trading partner with $518 billion in trade for 2024. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, this may grow to $7000 billion by 2030. Venezuela has by far the biggest BRI involvement with China with outstanding loans of $60 billion dollars, mostly related to energy and infrastructure, but some related to internal security.  

In August and September 2025, China issued several warnings to the United States regarding its escalating military and economic pressure on Venezuela. These were prompted by the US military buildup in the Caribbean and posting a bounty for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. China condemned the US Navy attack on and sinking of the Venezuelan boat September 1, in which 11 died. More directly, China voiced its support for Madura and Venezuelan sovereignty and the right of South American countries to self-determination.

The Russians have no official treaties with Venezuela, but Madura was in Moscow last week and secured about 7 billion in economic and military assistance. Moreover, two Russian Tu-160 bombers are visiting Caracas. This is a gesture that is made every few years, but the timing this time is coincident with the current US versus Venezuela crisis. The Tu-160 is the largest and heaviest strategic bomber in the world and also one of the fastest and most long-ranged. The Tu-160 was built and equipped for long-range stand-off  conventional or nuclear missile strikes. Its weapons include hypersonic missiles that are currently unstoppable. Their purpose in Caracas, however, is undoubtedly just a show of force—at least for now.  

The current US force in the Caribbean includes 4,000 Marines. This may indicate Trump, or his strongest advisers, favor a regime change in Venezuela. But I would not expect the Venezuelan people to welcome it. The Venezuelan people have suffered immensely under Madura, but much of the suffering has been the result of US sanctions on Venezuela. Bringing down a national leader by sanctions that bring suffering to the people in order to motivate regime change exposes a callous depravity in our foreign policy vision. Regime changes that come by deliberately inflicting suffering and economic woe on already beleaguered people do not qualify as a wise or moral strategy. We should not be surprised if gunboat regime change alienates most of South America. Bullying builds BRICS. Applause-line economics and applause-line Jingoism may seem like politically expedient patriot wisdom for a brief time, but we should not be surprised when improvidence brings humiliating consequences.

“When pride comes, then comes disgrace, but with the humble is wisdom.”

—Proverbs 11:2. ESV