Cuban Missile Crisis II

The Dark Cloud of Project Ukraine

The Cuban Missile Crisis from October 16 to October 28, 1962, was a major confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Turkey and Italy were matched by an attempted Soviet deployment of nuclear missiles in Cuba. The confrontation is widely considered the closest the Cold War ever came to escalating into a full-scale nuclear war. On October 21, President John Kennedy decided on a blockade of Cuba rather than a direct air attack on the missiles. The situation was resolved on October 28, when President Kennedy made a secret agreement with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to remove American missiles from Turkey and Italy in exchange for Russian removal of missiles and other weapons from Cuba. This secret agreement was not revealed until January 1989. The American media story for over a quarter century was that JFK had backed down the Russians. The narrow avoidance of nuclear war changed both Kennedy and Khrushchev, moving them both closer to peaceful coexistence rather than aggressive hegemonic competition.

I remember those days vividly, because I was a USAF photo-radar intelligence officer at Strategic Air Command headquarters near Omaha, Nebraska. Photo intelligence from two highly classified  sources and some very brave USAF F-86 photo-reconnaissance pilots kept us working 12-plus hours a day for several weeks. During that time, I felt we were on the brink of nuclear war every hour. I had very high security clearances but knew nothing of the compromise on American missies in Italy and Turkey, but I thank God for that compromise. Today, I feel the probability of nuclear war is higher than in October 1962, but the nuclear spark is more likely to come from a conventional  American missile launched by desperate Ukrainians against Russian population centers.

A fleet of four Russian Navy ships passed within 200 miles of Florida’s east coast on June 11-12, 2024, and arrived in Cuba on June 13. They plan on being in the Havana harbor until June 17, when they will depart for a larger Russian Navy exercise in the Atlantic. The Biden government is making light of this, although this is obviously a show of Russian force responding to Biden’s escalatory threats to allow Ukraine to use long-range US missiles with powerful warheads to strike inside Russia. Long-range missile escalation of the US-NATO-Ukraine proxy war against Russia could lead to all-out conflict, including nuclear war. The Ukrainians are already making shorter, less powerful, missile and drone strikes in Russia.

Despite ridiculous Ukrainian, US, and Western media propaganda that Ukraine is winning the war, Ukraine is in a desperate position. Superior Russian military firepower and numbers have devastated the Ukrainian Army and Air Force. The Russians have a ten to one advantage in artillery. The Russian Air Force has almost complete air-dominance. In fact, there is little left of the Ukrainian Air Force and working air defense systems. The Russians also have the most formidable anti-aircraft and missile systems in the world. Russian forces in or near Ukraine now number over 700,000, and 30,000 volunteers a month are enlisting in the Russian armed forces. Ukrainian forces are well below 250,000, and combat ready forces are probably under 50,000 now and short of equipment and ammunition. Ukrainian military deaths may be over 400,000 and as high as 600,000. Russian casualties are thought to be less than 10 percent of these numbers. The Ukrainians cannot meet their goal of mobilizing 30,000 men a month, and Ukrainian casualties are now running as high as 35,000 a month, with KIA typically running over one thousand per day. Ukraine has lost the war and is desperate to drag more American participation into the war, thus risking nuclear war for countless unwary millions.

The nuclear-powered Russian cruise-missile submarine Kazan (K-561), commissioned in May 2021, carries  long-range precision non-nuclear missiles that that could wreak destruction on the eastern coast of the US and Canada. It is capable of carrying nuclear missiles. According to Russian and Cuban spokesmen, they are only carrying conventional precision cruise missiles, but this includes the 620-mile range hypersonic, nuclear-capable, maneuverable Zircon, which has been battle-tested at shorter ranges in Ukraine. The Mach 8, 6,138 mph, 1.7-miles per second Zircon is nearly impossible to intercept. It is even more difficult to intercept because it is maneuverable. So far as is known, no other country is within half a decade of developing such a weapon. So the Russians have not only a numerical advantage on nuclear missiles, they have a formidable lead in hypersonic technology. The Kazan, named after the city of Kazan (population 1.1 million), is one of five operating Yasen-class SSGNs.  Four more are under construction with a total of 12 now planned. They are very long, 430 feet, with a 43-foot beam. Silent underwater cruising speed is 32 mph. Safe depth is 1,475 feet. Maximum depth is over 1,800 feet. Crew compliment is 64. Endurance is unlimited except for food and crew sanity.

The Russian Frigate Admiral Gorshkov, commissioned in July 2018 is a guided missile surface ship that carries 32 cells for surface to surface or anti-submarine missiles and 32 cells for surface to air missiles. The surface to surface missiles include the Kalibr, Oniks, and Zircon missiles, and the Otvet anti-submarine missile. The Zircon cruise missiles on the Admiral Gorshkov , like those on the submarine Kazan, are hypersonic, nuclear-capable, and maneuverable, with a range of 600 to 1,000 miles, according to the Naval Institute. The ship has two propeller shafts driven by a combination of diesel and gas fuel for maximum speed.  The Admiral Gorshkov is also loaded with naval guns, automatic 30-mm rotating cannons, machine guns, and eight torpedo tubes. It is additionally equipped with the latest radar, sonar, electronic fire-control systems, electronic warfare, communications, and navigational systems. It has one general purpose helicopter. It is  443-feet long and 53-feet at the beam, with a crew of 210. Endurance without re-supply is about 30 days. There are currently only three active Gorshkov-class frigates, with a fourth to be assigned to the Black Sea within months. Another six should be ready within five years. The total Gorshkov-class class is envisioned to be 20.  

The Russian replenishment oil taker Akademic Pashin was commissioned in January 2020. It is the first of its class with five more to be built.  It is 430 feet long and 71 feet wide at the beam, propelled by two 6300 hp diesel engines. Cruising speed is 18 mph. the range is 9,200 miles with an endurance of 60 days. Its cargo capacity is 7,350 tons. It has a crew of 24. Armament is unknown.

Accompanying these three ships is the Russian Navy Rescue Tug Nikolay Chiker SB-131 commissioned in 1989. There is speculation that the Nikolay Chiker also serves as a spy or special military operations ship. At 309-feet by 64-feet at the beam, it is one of two largest tugs in the world. The Nikolay Chiker has two 250-ton towing winches and one 60-ton winch. Both the Nikolay Chiker and its sister ship Fotiy Krylov SB-135 were built in Finland but have long served the Russian Navy. Both are propelled by a 250,000 ton powerplant. It can easily tow Russia’s only aircraft carrier. The Nikolay Chiker is also able to support deep diving and underwater construction, photography, radar, and exploration. It has a pressure chamber and medical operating facilities. It has a crew of 51 with 20 spare berths. It has a major helipad and one helicopter capable of 24-hour operation,  including air-refueling, Armament is unknown.

Global Firepower 2024 ranks the United States first in overall military power, with Russia second, and China third. In Naval power, the same ranking is true. In the number of submarines, Russia is first with 65, the U.S. a very close second with 64, and China third with 61. In airpower, the U.S. is first, Russia second, and China third, but the U.S. has an overwhelming advantage in numbers of aircraft, more than three times larger than the second place Russia. In quality and reliability of combat aircraft, however, Russia may have edged into first place. The Russians are certainly number one is both quantity and technology in missiles and especially nuclear missiles. They have also moved into first place in land forces. Factors like readiness and reliability are difficult to measure but may have a strong multiplier effect on actual effectiveness. Morale, loyalty, and motivation  impact all of this. Judging from recruiting success, Russia is on ta strong upswing, while the US, severely hampered by the DEI policies of the Biden Administration is in a dangerous state of deterioration, which could fatally weaken national security or result in unanticipated military disaster. I strongly advise reading Pete Hegseth’s new book: The War on Patriots: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free.

I also strongly recommend against relying on US and Western European media for an understanding of the Ukraine War.  I have previously recommended recent books by former Chief of Staff of Swiss Strategic Intelligence, Col. Jacques Baud, beginning with his late 2022 book, Operation Z.  I can now also strongly recommend the very recent 2024 book of Dr. Glenn Diesen, The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order. Diesen is a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and the author of 11 previous books on international politics and is a frequent contributor to international journals and media. Chapters 5-9 of his book are the most immediately relevant to understanding “Project Ukraine.”

Recent European Union Parliament elections indicated a significant decline in support for the Ukraine War. This was most evident in Germany and France and may soon result in leadership changes. Some NATO members—Hungary and Slovakia--are refusing to support Ukraine either militarily or financially. Italy is trending toward a similar stance.

 On Friday, June 14, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin gave an important speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry on BRICS, NATO Expansion, the history of the Ukraine War since its beginning with the Maidan Revolution and coup in February 2014, and the conditions for peace. It is important reading to know the truth about the Ukraine War and the danger that now confronts us. It is about 10,400 words, and I could not possibly do justice to its importance. A full transcript can be found on Moon of Alabama:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2024/06/putins-full-speech-brics-nato-expansion-and-ukraine-peace-talk-conditions.html

I will point out one thing I did not know for sure. According to Putin, US President Barack Obama agreed to help calm down the revolutionary violence and coup threat in Ukraine in telephone conversations on February 18-20, 2014, if Putin got Ukrainian President Yanukovych to promise to withdraw security police from Maidan Square and not to use the Army. Putin persuaded Yanukovych to do this, but Obama did nothing and let the violence and coup go forward, illegally overthrowing Yanukovych. Obama’s betrayal of his promise makes sense, because Obama’s main actors regarding Ukraine—VP Joe Biden, Asst. Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan—were the main American pushers for the coup. Putin went on to compare this to the final  betrayal of the Minsk Peace Agreement in February 2022. This is on about page 18 of 20 of the transcript.

Moon of Alabama advises that Americans should not trust American journalist quotes from Putin—they almost always distort them. Always get the transcript. This quote from the bottom of page 3 of the June 14 transcript gives a measure of Putin’s distrust of Western politicians:

“Ultimately, the selfishness and arrogance of Western states led to the current extremely dangerous state of affairs. We have come dangerously close to the point of no return. Calls to inflict strategic defeat on Russia, possessing the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons, demonstrate the extreme recklessness of Western politicians. They either do not understand the scale of the threat they themselves are creating or are simply obsessed with a belief in their own impunity and exceptionalism. Both could lead to tragedy.”