Collisions with Reality
Missile Defense Realities in both Ukraine and the Persian Gulf
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is complaining that Ukraine no longer has any air or missile defense. He is begging President Trump for more Patriot 3 missiles and the right for Ukraine to manufacture their own Patriot 3 missiles. The Gulf States are now aware they have little defense against Iranian ballistic missiles. At least 16 American bases in the Gulf have been rendered useless, destroyed by Iranian ballistic missiles and drones This included several billion dollars in high-tech interception radars. Saudi Arabia has claimed that 86% of its missile inventory has been expended. The Gulf States and other Middle Eastern American allies no longer have confidence that the US can protect them from Iranian attack. Their alliance with the U.S. is wavering.
The Israeli protective “Iron Dome” systems have only a minimal number of defensive missiles left, and replacements will not arrive soon. Tel Aviv and Israel’s major ports of Haifa, Ashdod, and Eilat have been badly damaged. Iranian ballistic missiles hit Israeli targets precisely and almost at will.
The Patriot 3, also called the PAC-3 with several specialized versions, is officially the MIM-104 Patriot System, a Mobile Surface-to-air Missile/Anti-Ballistic Missile System, first operational in 1984. It has been modified and improved considerably since 1984. Lockheed Martin claims the latest version is the most advanced air defense missile in the world.
MIT Professor Ted Postol has been urging attention for several years that while the Patriot 3 interceptor missile system has deadly effectiveness against most aircraft and perhaps cruise missiles, it has only a 2% to 3% effectiveness against the latest Russian and Iranian ballistic missiles. So far has it has zero effectiveness against Russian, Iranian, and probably Chinese hypersonic missiles. Postol’s studies have been reviewed and his data and analysis validated by academic and professional peers. The difficulty is easily understood when you think of trying to hit a bullet coming at you with your own bullet. Actually, it is even more complex, since newer offensive missiles can maneuver to avoid interception. The time interval between detection and successful interception is only seconds.
The Patriot 3 is effective against drones and probably cruise missiles, but Patriot 3 missiles cost about $3.9 million each, while the cost of capable drones is less than $35,000. A Patriot 3 battery with radar and about 170 missiles costs $1.1 billion. This is not winning long-time ratio for Patriot 3 and other defensive missiles. Other US defensive missiles may have similarly low effectiveness and comparatively high costs. The basic Russian S-400 interceptor missiles cost about $300,000 to $500,000 each. The main manufacturers of Patriot 3—Lockheed Martin and Raytheon—claimed the Patriot 3 has a 96% effectiveness, and the US military claims it is at least 90% effective. For missile interception? However, Postol has gone through the videos and tested his analysis with expert peers. Of course, we do not know if the Russian S-400 is that effective against missiles. Are they bluffing, too? I would not count on it.
It is probably has some value to bluff your potential enemies into thinking that your missile interceptor defense system is effective, but once the truth has been exposed by combat conditions, the expensive bluff is over. The Ukrainians used the older Russian S-300 at the beginning of the war. It was effective against aircraft but never meant to intercept ballistic missiles.
This is not just a weapons system failure; it is a potential scandal. How long has this performance gap against Russian and Iranian missiles existed? Who knew the truth and when? Why are we still selling them to our allies and on what promised performance? This needs to be a serious Congressional investigation.
See below: Professor Ted Postol: The Interceptor Math Doesn't Lie: US Air Defenses Are Now in “Total Collapse.” This video is about 1 hour and 10 minutes, but the first 30-35 minutes are sufficient to understand the situation.
https://www.youtube.com/live/BvKX4Sw_2ao?is=St1_LYSgNW7nsA2X
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Iran War Strategy
USAF General Dan Caine, representing the views of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was cautious from the beginning about attacking Iran. The risks were disproportionate to probable results. General Caine and the JCS now seem to have a growing consensus that further extensive bombing would not change the outcome of the war but could result in higher casualties and dangerous exhaustion of US military weapons inventories. This is true of both defensive and non-nuclear offensive missiles. Commanders in the field are also voicing strong reservations against exhausting weapon inventories at the expense of regional commands. The strongest ally to the military consensus is Vice President J. D. Vance. However, while tactical air and naval forces seem to be distancing their positions from Iran and the Persian Gulf, strategic bombing aircraft like the B-1, B-2, and B-52 are being concentrated for a massive strike.
President Trump committed to the February 28 attack on Iran on the basis of intelligence from then Israeli Mossad Intelligence Director David Barnea and the urging of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Iran would have a nuclear weapon in weeks and would attack Israel at first opportunity. This contradicted the unanimous intelligence of all 16 US intelligence agencies and then Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Netanyahu prevailed with the objective of achieving an expanded Greater Israel secure from Iranian or other Islamic attacks and regional dominance of the Middle East.
Iran has given each Gulf State, including Iraq and Jordan, that have used American bases to attack Iran, a list of targets that will be hit if US bombers and missiles attack Iranian oil and gas infrastructure. The precise and devastating Iranian retaliations following the February 28 attack in March prove Iranian capability. The Gulf States are now vulnerable to nation-destroying Iranian missile and drone attacks. The global consequences from oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, and other critical resource shortages will also endanger stable government and economic survival of Japan and South Korea, and wreak economic havoc throughout the world—a worldwide depression, which will also be devasting to the US economy. The political consequences in the United States could result in unrecoverable Republican disaster—yet most Republican Members of Congress are busy imposing more sanctions on Russia in honor of Lindsey Graham, whose advice to Trump may soon be the cause of severe Republican losses.
Will our national security and foreign policy be determined by moral and factually objective reality or $300 million in AIPAC political campaign funds?
The Strait of Hormuz
The Iranian Parliament is now working on legislation to control the Strait of Hormuz. One report is that passage charges will be $6.70 per net ton of cargo. This happens to be what Türkiye charges for passages through the Dardanelles. It is not likely any American or Israeli ships will be allowed to enter for a while. Nations that have made war on Iran will have to pay huge restitution fees. The Iranians have gone from objectives of survival to adding additional charges for revenge based on damage done and civilian casualties. I have noticed in my research tonight that American internet media is burying any mention of Iranian casualties from American or Israeli bombing attacks. This is typical of CIA war justification propaganda operations. The Iranian Parliament is also now in the procedure of proposing how revenues will be distributed between Iran and Oman on the western side of the Strait.
There are several as yet unverifiable reports of American pressures on Oman. One is that Oman should share profits from passage charges with the US. This would be a way for the US to influence the administration of the Hormuz Strait and could be claimed as a Trump victory. Oman is the weakest Gulf State in military terms with 5.4 million people but armed forces of just 47,000 personnel, although they are well equipped and trained. Oman has generally concentrated on strong diplomatic efforts to maintain peace and political and economic stability.
A second and probably related idea is that US Army and Marine Corps troops should invade Oman and take the western shore of Hormuz Strait and use that as a gathering and launching point for taking the Iranian side of the Strait, then possibly driving north all the way to Tehran from there.
I hope any ideas of using Oman to invade Iran are journalistic fancy. They seem to contradict JCS thinking on the untenable risks and casualties of involving the US in a boots-on-the-ground land war with Iran.
In addition to Iran’s approximately 150,000 IRGC troops, there are 2.0 million troops in the Regular Iranian Army and another 2.0 million ready-to-activate militia units.
For a full briefing, I recommend LCol (ret) Danny Davis’s Deep DIve Intel Weekly Briefing 8/8/2026. Daniel Davis is a courageous Christian whistleblower whose YouTube broadcasts have become a major American and international source for truth in foreign policy and military affairs. He is a decorated combat veteran. He was nominated to be Deputy Director of National Intelligence but was vetoed by strong AIPAC money. Click below to open and tune into LCol Dan Davis and Deep Dive often. He usually has one or more daily briefings and interviews.
https://www.youtube.com/live/O2SCmMgskac?is=GwhOQTUm_xPq0Sie (1 hour and 1 minute video)
Another excellent interview today was former CIA Russian expert George Beebe by highly respected Norwegian Professor of International Relations and Economics Glenn Diesen, also an expert on Russia. George Beebe is a former Director CIA Russia Analysis. It is vital for Americans to zoom-out and understand Russia free from Cold War and recent CIA and Hillary Clinton propaganda. It is essential for the American public to know the national security and foreign policy principles discussed here.
https://youtu.be/11G2As-nhO0?is=tXYGSERFSfU-n9iy (34 minute video)
"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God."—Mathew 5:9.
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East. 
