Spreading Consequences of Persian Gulf War
On Saturday night, August 1, President Trump announced and posted on Truth Social that he had agreed to halt an extensive planned air and missile attack against Iran, following an alleged informal agreement by the Islamic Republic of Iran with a framework for “a peace deal.”
“The U.S.A. is locked and loaded and ready to go against the Islamic Republic of Iran at levels of Military Terror, Strength, and Power not seen since World War II. Iran and other governments in the region asked the US ‘to hold off any attack’ because ‘the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.’ The proposed agreement would include the ’Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT’ and ‘an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed for the future benefit of the WORLD, and likewise the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, contingent on the parties being able to ‘rapidly make a DEAL.’ The country of Israel joins me in this commitment.”
Just a day before Trump’s announcement and post, US and Israeli planners were weighing heavy strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Iranian officials, however, had warned that any attack on its energy infrastructure would be retaliated by heavier attacks against oil and gas facilities in Saudi, Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Israel. Iran has thus far been consistent is in carrying out promised retaliatory strikes with unexpected precision and levels of destruction. Recent Iranian retaliatory strikes against US forces in Jordan and Kuwait have been surprisingly successful, according to independent sources.
The American public and those of its NATO allies have been kept ignorant or poorly informed on Iranian missile and drone strikes against American bases in the Persian Gulf States and on Israel. According to the BBC, satellite photography indicates Iran has been remarkably successful and precise in attacking 20 US bases. According to a Defense Security Asia report on March 26, about 4 weeks after the February 28 US and Israeli surprise attack on Iran and its leaders, 13 US bases in the Middle East are “nearly uninhabitable.” Most of these has been abandoned, and US forces dispersed to safer areas. A May 3 follow-up report found three more bases severely crippled, bringing the total to 16. The Iranians were able to knock out numerous expensive US early warning radars, which has left Persian Gulf states largely blind to incoming Iranian missiles.
The CENTCOM headquarters and Sixth Fleet headquarters in Bahrein have now been removed. No US warship or personnel would be safe there. The hardest hit American bases were in Bahrein, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar, but bases in the UAE, Jordan, Iraq, and Oman were also struck. The intensity has now focused on Jordan, and USAF aircraft and personnel there are now being dispersed to safer or more distant locations. As of May, at least 42 American aircraft had been lost, but that could be well over 50 now with recent strikes on Jordan.
As of late July 2026, the “Department of War” is reporting only 18 US service members dead but over 600 wounded. These numbers are, however, being disputed in Congress. The ratio of killed to wounded looks suspiciously low.
Iranian officials deny any negotiations are taking place with US or allied officials. They also declare that they do not trust Trump and will not negotiate with him.
The Real Story--The Saudi Arabian Dilemma
Before the Iran War actually began, when the US and Israel were contemplating a decapitation attack on Iran, Saudi Arabia urged the US to attack Iran. Saudi Arabia considered Iran a dangerous rival for Middle East Muslim leadership. Saudi Arabia had requested the US give them nuclear weapons, which Israel had and Iran might someday have.
However, on Saturday, August 1, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) called President Trump on the phone and asked him to step back from an intense bombing and missile attack on Iran and pursue deescalation and peace.
MBS was by now well aware of how effective Iranian missiles, drones, and related technology had become in destroying anything Iran targeted. A large-scale US attack on Iran would likely provoke Iran to destroy a huge portion of Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas industry. In fact, Iran had vowed to retaliate tit for tat but more severely. The oil and gas industry comprises over 22% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP and 55% of its government revenue. Moreover, the Saudis get 60% of their water from desalinization plants, especially necessary for urban areas and industry. The whole western shore of the Persian Gulf is dependent on desalinization plants for drinking and commercial and industrial uses. The UAE is 42% dependent on desalinization, and Kuwait is 90% dependent. Some weeks before, Trump had threatened to bomb Iranian desalinization plants, not realizing that Iran was only 3% dependent on desalinization for their water.
If Trump ordered a major oil and gas infrastructure bombing campaign, Iran could respond by devastating Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and others by hitting desalinization plants. This would be an enormous humanitarian disaster that would bring down governments and cause a migration wave that would overwhelm much of Europe and other Western countries. A large part of the Gulf State nations have large guest-worker majorities.
The oil and gas losses alone could trigger a world-wide depression. In addition to closing off maritime shipping of oil, gas, and LPG, the Iranians have been able to temporarily stop pipeline transportation for the UAE to Oman and Saudi Arabian pipeline transportation to the Red Sea. There, the Yemeni Houthi are already attacking Saudi Arabia and blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi and Israeli shipping.
The Suez Canal is appropriate only for small to mid-size tankers. However, on July 28, there was an unidentified (possibly false flag) drone strike near the Egyptian administered Suez Canal. The ship hit was the US gas storage tanker Energos Winter, and the fire spread to a second vessel.
As if Saudi Arabia did not have enough problems, in a joint strike with the US, they hit the Shia Muslim Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the Diyala Province of Iraq on July 29, killing 20 and wounding 32 “militants,” allegedly including 5 Iranian advisers among the dead. The specifics are according to Yahoo News, but the attack was also reported by numerous sources.
Iraq is majority Shia Muslim, and the PMF is allied with the present Iraqi government. This has obviously affected Iraqi government sentiment toward both the US and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi situation may have to do with the precarious status of Kuwait, which has been devastated by Iranian missile strikes. Until 1961, Kuwait was a British created, British protectorate. It has the sixth largest oil reserves in the world. Former Iraq ambitions to annex Kuwait are probably still relevant. However, a few days later on August 1, Saudi Arabia’s MBS begged Trump to relent on massive bombing attacks on Iran and pursue peace, believing Saudi Arabian national survival is at stake.
MBS’s plea allegedly coincides with the advice of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. According to numerous articles in the Wall Street Journal and a CNN article July 26, Vice President J.D. Vance, JCS Chief General Dan Caine, and the JCS have been cautioning against more massive bombing attacks and escalation for a long time. They are very expensive and now only marginally effective. The risk of greater aircraft losses and higher casualties is rising significantly. Furthermore, the US in running low on both defensive and offensive missiles, which cannot be easily replaced in the near future. Trump, himself, would like to withdraw from the Iran situation, but insists on making it look like a great victory.
Iran’s rugged granite mountain terrain and scores of underground missile storage and operational facilities as much as 1,000 to 1,500 feet beneath granite mountains and built over decades have given them a formidable and unexpected advantage. Iran’s missile and drone expertise is among the best in the world. Moreover, they are now assisted by the Russians and Chinese, perfecting their precision accuracy. There is no credible evidence they are running out of missiles or drones. In fact, recent Iranian missile strikes have introduced some new and more advanced missiles.
Why did we not anticipate this? Part of this is that the CIA has evolved more and more into a propaganda and interventionist provocateur agency rather than an analytical intelligence agency. Moreover, a huge part of that propaganda has been to convince Americans and Congress to support wars and strategic schemes more imperialist than befits honest government and national security.
Saudi Arabia’s dilemma has also become the dilemma of Qatar, Jordan, Bahrein, Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq, Oman, and perhaps even Egypt. The Iran War has demonstrated that US protection has limits, especially against an enormous country with 93 million people and granite underground fortresses with formidable technological expertise and backed now by Russia and China. They are thinking they want no more of this American and Israeli war against Iran and maybe that China, Russia, and India might be safer and more profitable allies.
There has been only scanty US media coverage of Iranian missile strikes in Israel. Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu has outlawed release of any videos or photography showing missile or bombing damage. Unfortunately, Israel’s Iron Dome protection from missiles has been rendered less ineffective by Iranian drone swarms and accurate missile targeting. Many Iranian missiles are currently getting through. Many defensive missile systems have been destroyed and defensive missiles are in short supply without immediate hope of replenishment. Consequently, Israel’s three major commercial ports—Haifa, Ashdod, and Eilat—have received significant damage as has Tel-Aviv. Israeli civilians put up with constant air raid alerts, but Israeli officials say fewer than 30 civilians have died in air raid attacks.
“Pray for the peace of Jerusalem! May they be secure who love you!”—Psalm 122:6
Israel has gotten itself and the US into an untenable position. Congress needs to avail itself with better intelligence and information and stop throwing gasoline on the fire. However, we need a strategy to protect Israel from aggression. This strategy must be contingent on Israel’s honest peace-enhancing reforms. This is perhaps the most difficult and challenging goal for Middle East peace and stability. We may require a bit of divine genius as well as dedicated patience and hard work.
“If any of you lacks wisdom, let him ask God who gives generously to all without reproach, and it will be given to him.”—James 1:5 ESV
The economic consequences of global energy shortages caused by bombing out oil refineries, overland pipelines, and maritime transportation facilities are going to be severe. Unless our foreign policy and current military strategy are corrected within weeks, economic distress and inflationary dominoes will be painfully visible in the US and more so in Europe, Japan, and South Korea. The political consequences may also be sweeping. President Trump has many domestic achievements that need to remain in place, but they will be overturned unless he acts quicky to deescalate and redirect US military strategy and foreign policy.
There is probably no formal “deal” and there will probably never be a formal deal.” Trump is going to have to act unilaterally for peace, economic stability, and American national security—and quickly. He must simply remain bravely resolute to do the right thing and deescalate, including withdrawing most US forces, despite a torrential rain of immature and uninformed public and media criticisms. It takes truly manly courage to admit a mistake and proceed with reform.
“Courage is not simply one of the virtues but the form of every virtue at the testing point.”—C.S. Lewis
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East. 
