Including Reports on Conditions and Leadership in Ukraine and Russia
Rich Baris is Director of the Big Data Poll. He is pro-Trump, and Trump is a frequent client. He has the earned reputation of best predicting the Trump vote in State, Congressional District, and National votes. His Big Data Poll is much more detailed than most polls and shows crucial demographic and perceived candidate weaknesses, strengths, and other significant political and social data that allow critical analysis, clarified issues, and sharpened communication and campaign strategy.
The latest Big Data Poll was conducted on September 13-15, 2026, and was directed at midterm US House and Senate Elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and early voting periods.
President Donald Trump was at his lowest approval rating during this period, at least to date.
Only 38.8% of registered voters approved of Trump’s Presidential job performance. Only 18.9% strongly approved. On the negative side, 58.5% disapprove of Trump’s Presidential job performance, and 45.7% strongly disapprove. The difference between strong approval and strong disapproval was a record 26.8%
We can compare this with Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday, September 18. Rasmussen has proved an accurate surveyor of Trump and Republicans generally, but generally running 2-3% higher than most polls, which seem to have a Democrat bias.
Rasmussen showed Trump with 41% approval and 59% disapproval. Rasmussen found 23% strong approval and 46% strong disapproval with a negative 23% difference.
Baris showed that 60.5% of registered voters believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, and 36.3% believe it is moving in the right direction, with about 3% undecided.
According to Baris, Trump’s decline began with the “Midnight Hammer” bombing and “obliteration” of Iranian nuclear material storage on June 22, 2025. Baris recently stated in an interview with LCOL Daniel Davis that about 70% of Americans oppose the Iran War, and only 20% support it. A Fox News Poll just released showed that 71% of American voters believe Trump has No clear plan to end the Iran war. It is not surprising that 95% of Democrats hold this opinion, but an alarming 83% of Independent voters hold that opinion, and 43% of Republicans agree. Only 53% of Republicans believe Trump has a clear plan to end the war.
This Fox Poll also showed there had been a whopping 24% shift away from the President and Republicans on inflation. During the peak Biden inflation period in September 2022, Republicans had a 9% lead over Democrats on inflation. Now, the Democrats have a 15% lead. The Fox Poll indicated that 61% of Americans are concerned about grocery price inflation, and 60% are concerned about gasoline prices.
Baris’s Big Data Poll indicated that of likely voters, 48.3% would vote Democrat, 37.4% would vote Republican, and 14.3% were currently undecided. The last figure indicates a danger of a low voter turnout. It is not just apathy. Baris indicates many Republicans are angry over Trump’s perceived change in positions, especially continuous expansion of military conflicts.
Adding the undecided but leaning vote, the results are 50.5% Democrat, 39.3% Republican, and 10.2% undecided.
Of those who say they are certain to vote, it is 51% Democrat 38.1% Republican, and 10.9% undecided.
Very significantly, the intensity factor favors the Democrats. Of those who said they were extremely enthused about the November vote, 55.6% would vote Democrat, 36.3% would vote Republican, and 8.1% were undecided.
Baris’s Big Data Poll on Senate races indicated likely voters were breaking 50.4% Democrat, 39.1% Republican, and 10.5% undecided. Including the “leaning,” it raised the Democrat position slightly to 51.6% Democrat, 40.4% Republican, and 8.0 undecided. Of those certain to vote 52.7% favor Democrats, 39.5% Republicans, and 7.8% were undecided.
The Big Data poll included two sets of data. Likely voters 2,947, and all registered voters a 2,633, totaling 5,580. Comparing the Likely voter base with the all registered voters base indicates higher general turnout could favor Democrats by ad much as 1.5-2.5%.
Please also see this Daniel Davis interview of Rich Baris of Big Data Poll.
War & Americans What the Polls Reveal /Pollster Rich Baris & Lt Col Daniel Davis
The longer the US continues to be militarily engaged against Iran, the greater will be the US and global impact of prices and shortages of oil, fuels, fertilizer, helium, and sulfuric acid. The could easily result in a serious US recession or worse. Vote buying campaign themes could open the door for hyper-inflation.
Some have compared the possible results of the 2026 Congressional Elections with the 1974 Watergate Congress Elections. The Democrats gained 49 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate. However, this does not have to happen.
The Iran War is not the only war that could influence the November Election. The Iran War has spread to war between Saudia Arabia and the Ansar Allah (Houthi) in Yemen, already having a huge impact on petroleum shipping and pipelines.
The Ukraine War is now moving toward a Russian victory. The American people are not going to be happy when they learn the truth about the origins and real objectives of the Ukraine War, the costs and outrageous propaganda that has sustained it, the corruption of the Zelensky dictatorship and regime, and the devastating consequences for the Ukrainian economy and especially the Ukrainian people.
See this video of Tucker Carlson interview of Yulia Mandel, former Zelensky Press Secretary:
Zelensky’s Press Secretary Reveals All: Cocaine, Cover-ups, and the Only Obstacle Preventing Peace
On September 16, the European Union Parliament blocked Mandel from giving a speech in which she details the disastrous demographic, social, economic, and political consequences of the Ukraine War under the rule of Zelensky and witless support of the European Union.
Below, see also a report on the Ukraine War by University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer to interviewer Norwegian Professor of Economics and International Relations Glenn Diesen. Mearsheimer is the author of several important books on International Relations. He is a West Point graduate and former Air Force officer. He has just returned from a trip to Russia, which included several hours at dinner with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The American public and Congress are in serious need of accurate information on Russia and Russian thinking as opposed to standard US media and CIA propaganda.
John Mearsheimer (FIXED AUDIO): Ukraine May Cease to Exist — The Coming Ugly Victory
The Russian Duma (Parliament) 3-day Election period is already underway from September 18-20. According to the independent and highly respected Lavada Center, Vladimir Putin maintains a 76% approval rate, but down from his career high of 89% during the Presidential Election two years ago. His recent criticism has come from hardliners favoring more aggressive military actions against Ukraine to bring the war to a favorable end. Putin now seems to be responding with more aggressive and faster moving military action. Most Americans have a demonized image of Putin created by the CIA and Hillary Clinton. This has undermined successful and respected US foreign policy and the future peace and prosperity of the American people
Ukraine now seems within months of military and economic collapse and is already completely dependent on US, European Union, and European NATO funding.
It is late, very late, but the Republicans need to correct their course away from imperialistic foreign intervention schemes and concentrate with hammering intensity on truthful economic and realistic social sanity. This is urgent and demands maximum effort and resources. Credibility only comes with truth, and that needs to be the inviolable campaign standard.
Following the November Election, we need to rethink and begin rebuilding our national security forces, foreign policy orientations, and intelligence resources.
“The sum of your word is truth, and every one of your righteous rules endures forever.”—Psalm 119:160.
Mike Scruggs is the author of two books: The Un-Civil War: Shattering the Historical Myths; and Lessons from the Vietnam War: Truths the Media Never Told You, and over 600 articles on military history, national security, intelligent design, genealogical genetics, immigration, current political affairs, Islam, and the Middle East. 
