Ukrainian KIA vs Russian KIA Estimates

Project Ukraine Propaganda vs Reality

Nations at war are reluctant to release casualty statistics. Casualty statistics have an inevitable impact on both civilian and military morale with potentially heavy political consequences. They are also reluctant to give an enemy knowledge that might be to their tactical, strategic, psychological, or political advantage. For these reasons, the US and other nations have traditionally  “slow-rolled” public and media casualty figures and circumstances in order to avoid public discouragement and maintain control of their war narrative. Moreover, to maintain a successful war narrative, estimates of enemy or allied casualties may reflect propaganda rather than reality. This is particularly important in comparisons of allied and enemy losses.

This is also important in international relations with both our allies and with more or less neutral nations around the globe.  National and economic leaders around the world do not appreciate being deceived by wild propaganda. National credibility is an important national asset that needs to be jealously guarded and maintained.

Accurate casualty data and estimates are often difficult to gather and analyze. Yet reasonable accuracy is necessary for both military and political decision makers. In the Ukraine War, more than most conflicts, there has been a wide and even wildly dishonest difference between propaganda releases and reality.  In my opinion, neither President Trump nor Congress has been well informed on Ukrainian or Russian casualties. Rather than being accurately informed, they have been propagandized to justify aggressive American actions and later plans. In February 2014, the US State Department and CIA backed the overthrow of the duly elected Ukrainian government in the violent Maidan Revolution.” This led to a 2015 civil war between the new Ukrainian nationalist government and army and its 38% Russian and mixed Russian-Ukrainian ethnic minority concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine. Later plans called for making Ukraine into a de facto and eventually de jure NATO member serving as anti-Russian political and military bulwark and threat to Russian national security.  

Following the February 2014 revolution and coup, the CIA took over the pro-Russian Ukrainian  intelligence agencies and rebuilt and remanned them with pro-NATO and anti-Russian objectives. Ukrainian intelligence agencies and Ukrainian General Staff intelligence are essentially joined at the hip with the CIA with significant input from British MI6. The CIA thus has a heavy influence on Ukrainian military plans and intelligence. Moreover, CIA covert operations and war propaganda seem to have a priority over intelligence collection and analysis. Many independent analysts, including former CIA analysts, have alleged that the CIA’s influence on Ukrainian government and military operations is so strong that the Ukraine War is de facto a CIA Project. Congress needs to evaluate whether their CIA briefings are an expert evaluation of relevant facts or propaganda designed to achieve CIA war objectives.

An important factor in the Ukrainian General Staff and CIA war narrative seems to be the that Ukrainian KIA casualties are tolerable and significantly less than Russian KIA casualties.

Knowing the circumstances makes this a ridiculous assertion. Russian firepower exceeds Ukrainian firepower by huge factors. The largest number of war casualties have been from artillery. Russian artillery pieces and ammunition outnumber Ukrainian capabilities by at least 6 to one and probably greater than 10 to one. A report by Alexander Graber on casualties (see below) indicated that Russian artillery production and superiority has continued to increase, so the present advantage is probably greater than 10 to one. Ukrainian missile and anti-aircraft defense have practically disappeared. Russian Air Force Su-34 bombers and Su-35 fighter-bombers  now drop huge glide-bombs from stand-off positions on Ukrainian positions without significant opposition. Russian drone warfare now exceeds Ukraine drone capabilities in number, speed, accuracy, defensive systems, and destructive loads. The Russians are not making massive WWI and WWII style infantry assaults on fortified positions. They assault in teams of 3 to 6 with much planning and protection, letting artillery and airstrikes do their deadly work. This is slow, but it lowers Russian casualty rates considerably. Furthermore, the Russians have casualty recovery systems comparable to the US, whereas Ukrainian casualties usually have to be left on the field, increasing KIA as a percent of casualties.  In terms of firepower, the Russians have huge advantages on the ground and from the air. This is resulting in a massive Ukrainian KIA casualties.

Despite the dominance of misleading propaganda releases on Ukraine War casualties, more objective estimates are becoming available and confirm that Ukrainian KIA reality outnumbers Russian KIA reality by alarming ratios. In late October, Alexander Graber published a study entitled, Irretrievable Losses: Estimating Casualties in the Russo-Ukraine War, published by the Finnish National Defense University. This was published despite Finland’s present pro-Ukrainian, anti-Russian sympathies. This was also covered in a video presentation by Graber as interviewed by British journalist Ian Pround on October 24.

Grabel used several ratios which could be derived from confirmed data. The simplest was from body exchanges between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. This has some analytical complications, but the ratio was 12.5 dead Ukrainians for each dead Russian. More extensive data could be found by comparing categories of wounds treated in hospitals. As of the end of June 2024, there were 3,200 Russian casualty amputations. Mediazona counted 90,692 for Ukrainians during the same time. This is an alarming ratio of 28.3 Ukrainians for one Russian.

As of June 30, 2024, Russian wounded casualties admitted to hospitals totaled 166,000. Using American Vietnam War ratios, the number of Russians KIA by the end of June 2024, should be approximately 35,264. Using the same ratios, estimated Ukrainians KIA by that date would have been approximately 1,031,000.  Retired US Army Col. Douglas Macgregor, who has many informed European sources, has been estimating over 1.0 million Ukrainian KIA casualties for some time. In May 2025, he estimated as many as 1.8 million Ukrainian KIA of over 4.0 million total casualties. By the way, United Nations sources estimated civilian Ukrainian dead at less than 17,000 in July 2026. This is a very low figure compared to World War II standards and evidence  that Russia is pursuing a policy avoiding civilian casualties. Russian civilian casualties for the war have also been just short of 17,000 from fewer and less discriminatory drone strikes, whereas the Russians have been bombing and showering Ukraine with missiles for many months.

One complication in estimating Ukrainian military casualties is the high number of desertions and absence without leave (AWOL). According to the Ukraine Prosecutor General’s Office, the Ukrainian Army had suffered over 250,000 desertions by June 2025 and were increasing by an average of nearly 576 desertions per day. This is a sign of impending collapse rather than perseverance and is completely contrary to the Ukrainian and US victorious war narrative faithfully repeated by the US, EU, and British media. This is rather a sign of combat fatigue and exhaustion without any relief and concern that lives are being wasted in futile military operations. It also reflects Ukraine’s policy of Forced Mobilization of men 25 to 60, which is being fiercely resisted. All this is internal evidence of high casualties.

Graber also checked Russian combat reporting and videos for accuracy, and found they were fairly reliable.  The Russian military is famous for its grinding methodology and perseverance. They also tend to be very direct in their statements and conversation, and are reliable in promise.   

Graber, who is an academic, is reluctant to speculate on exact ratios or casualties at this point, only that the ratio range is from 10 to 30 Ukrainian KIA to one Russian. Even 10 is enormous, but the ratio of Russian firepower to Ukrainian firepower is at least 10 and growing. Casualties are generally highest at the end of a war, with the defeated army or power taking disproportionate losses.

The Russians probably know their KIA within a few hundred, but judging from the Graber statistics, we can only speculate that they are between 75,000 and 95,000. The Ukrainians may not know within 200,000, but their KIA probably exceed 750,000 and may be as much as 1.3 million or more. However, we do know beyond doubt that far more Ukrainians have been killed than Russians, probably at least a 10 to one ratio. This is a simple deduction from overwhelming Russian firepower and air and missile superiority. Proclaiming an obvious and spectacular lie about the KIA ratio has prolonged the war, shattered Ukraine, and severely damaged US intelligence credibility.

The population of Ukraine was 49.5 million in 2010. According to Ella Libanova, Ukrainian Director of Demography, the October 2026 population was only 28.5 million due to massive outmigration because of the war and territorial losses. According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, 9.5 million have fled the country. The largest numbers have fled to Russia and Poland. Of those left, more than 10.0 million are pensioners.

On April 24, 2019,  the Rand Corporation published a strategy to destabilize Russia by drawing the Russians into a conflict with Ukraine and destroying the Russian economy by sanctions. This had been requested by the Defense Department.  Its ultimate objective was Russian regime change and regional breakup. The Rand Corporation commendably advised that it was high risk. The Trump Administration passed over it, but it seemed to be immediately adopted by the Biden Administration in 2021. It proved to be  high risk indeed, especially for the future of Ukraine!  A better name for it would have been “Project Ukraine,” which was its unfortunate instrument. “Project Ukraine” has now almost destroyed Ukraine. The Rand Corporation, however, is now suggesting that criticism of the two Rand Corporation papers involved is motivated by Russian propaganda.

The best, most understandable, and objective description of these two Rand Corporation papers, Extending Russia: Competing for Advantageous Ground, and Overextending and Unbalancing Russia, can be found in Col. Jacque Baud’s 2023 book, Ukraine Between War & Peace,  especially pages 20-21, but also 22-50 for a wider and more in depth perspective of the Ukraine War. Col. Baud is a retired Chief of Swiss Strategic Intelligence and a former employee of both NATO and the United Nations. Col. Baud is a prolific author and is frequently interviewed on military and foreign policy subjects. Col. Baud  currently resides in Brussels, Belgium, the home of NATO and the European Union, The European Union is currently trying to silence him with severe economic and travel sanctions.

The American people and Congress have been deceived by absurdly distorted accounts of low Ukrainian and high Russian casualties. The Ukrainian people, including Ukrainian ethnics, Russian ethnics, and mixed Russian-Ukrainian ethics have paid a high price for war propaganda stirring up hatred and distrust and demonizing Russian culture, connections, and leaders. It was never for the benefit of Ukraine or its people.

“In a time of deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. It’s an act of bravery that challenges the status quo and stands in stark contrast to the comfort of falsehoods and half-truths that surround us.” – George Orwell, author of 1984