Political and Economic Impact of Attack on Iran

March 1, 2026, Comments

On Saturday morning, February 28, Israel and the United States launched a massive bombing and missile attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. This occurred while negotiations between the United States and Iran were still ongoing, and Iran had just agreed to a major concession that it would not enrich or stockpile uranium. Iran had already stated that it would never develop nuclear weapons. In fact, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a religious Fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons in October 2003.  Iran, however, refused U.S. negotiators demand to eliminate its missile arsenal, its principal defense against Israeli and American attack. There were no offers to reduce financial or economic sanctions on Iran in exchange. This American and Israeli demand was one no country that valued its sovereignty, national security, and independence would agree to short of utter military defeat. It is obvious that the real issue to the United States and Israel was Regime Change. Supreme Iranian Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had to go and his government replaced by one friendly to and subject to the influence of the United States.  

According to a University of Maryland poll of 1,004 American adults published in the New York Times, taken a week before and published on February 28, only 21 percent of American adults supported attacking Iran. Forty-nine percent opposed it, and 30 percent were uncertain. About 40 percent of Republican voters, however, supported an attack.   

A Quinnipiac University poll published in January revealed only 18 percent of American adults favored attacking Iran. Attacking Iran was opposed 80 percent to 11 percent by Independent voters, 79 percent to 7 percent among Democrat voters, and 53 percent to 35 percent by Republican voters. Overall, 70 percent opposed attacking Iran and 12 percent had no opinion. The Quinnipiac poll indicated 74 percent believe any attack on Iran should be approved by Congress, while 20 percent believe it needed only Presidential approval.

South Carolina U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has pointed out that Congress and presidents have not enforced Congressional approval for wars in 84 years. Lindsey Graham has been a vocal advocate of continuing to ignore the Constitution regarding War Powers in regard to both Iran and Russia. Prior to the Trump Administration, Lindsey Graham was a major advocate for Amnesty and a Path to Citizenship for illegal immigrants.

In 2013, the "Gang of Eight" was a bipartisan group of U.S. Senators—Democrats Chuck Schumer, Dick Durbin, Bob Menendez, and Michael Bennet, and Republicans John McCain,  Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio,  and Jeff Flake—who drafted the  Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S.744). The 844-page bill aimed to provide a pathway to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants while promising to strengthen border security. A Heritage Foundation study found that the S.744 amnesty would cost American taxpayers $126 billion per year in additional welfare and government benefits through 2063, totaling $6.3 trillion. According to then Senator Jeff Sessions the bill would have allowed 30 million new legal immigrants over the next decade.  Senator Sessions also pointed out that amnesties have historically increased illegal immigration by two to three times over one to two decades, multiplying expenses by enormous proportions. Harvard labor economist George Borjas found that legal and illegal immigrant workers depressed American middle class and blue collar wages by about $2,700 per year. This is nearly $5,000 per year in 2026 dollars. S.744, the Schumer-Rubio Bill passed the Senate with 13 Republican votes but was fortunately defeated in the House.

Two late February YouGov polls published by CBS give some nuance to the issue of attacking Iran. Only 18 percent favored attacking Iran. Seventy-four percent believed Congress should approve military action and 26 percent believed it was not necessary. On the question of whether military force should be used to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, 47 percent favored it on February 24, and 51 percent favored it on February 27. Opposition was 53 percent and 49 percent respectively. On the same poll, Trump’s approval rose from 40 percent to 41 percent.  During this time, Fox News was orchestrating a major propaganda push to attack Iran.

The Rassmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll is usually more favorable to Trump than other polls, but the March 1 release had dropped to 45 percent approval from 46 percent a few days before. So far this is an insignificant change.

The public is not yet well informed on the attack on Iran, but the economic consequences will soon be visible. Iran has now closed the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the Persian Gulf. More than 20 percent of the world’s crude oil is shipped through there. On Sunday evening, March 1, crude oil was $70.18 per barrel, up over 6 percent from Friday. but many petroleum economists are saying it could quickly double. That means gasoline at the pump could rise to about $6.00 per gallon. This will also hurt Iran, but Iran is desperately fighting for its survival, and this is its primary economic weapon.

Also Sunday evening, the spot price of gold was up to $5,334 per ounce, and silver was up almost 7 percent to $93.50 . I dread to see the impact on the stock market Monday morning, but I do not recommend panic selling. Dow Futures are down only $313 at present. However, the economics of the Iran War is going to get some public attention, and that attention will impact November 2026 U.S. House and Senate elections. This will be added to the burden of tariffs, on which 96 percent of the burden falls on U.S. family and business consumers and decreases sales of U.S. exporters, according to the U.S. Tax Foundation.

According to AXIOS, USAF General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint-Chiefs-of Staff and representing the JCS  advised President Trump that an attack on Iran was high risk without guarantee of “success.” This opinion was also apparently held by DNI Tulsi Gabbard and Vice President J.D. Vance.  According to Reuters, CIA Director John Ratliffe and his briefers acknowledged that Operation Epic Fury was “high risk but high reward.” Ratliffe, however, seemed burdened by the risk.

As usual in both the Ukraine War and the Iran war,  much of the news information, probably sourced from the CIA,  appears to be propaganda. While government officials and news media have been claiming 36,000 protestors were killed by Iranian police and security forces, the count from HRANA (Human Rights Activist News Agency News) is just 7,000. Other sources say only 4,000 to 6,000, including 500 police and security personnel.

Former CIA Director and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was happy to see that the CIA and Israeli Mossad Intelligence were working together to overthrow the government of Iran. This is undoubtedly assisted by British MI6 and by U.S. based NGOs like the National Endowment for Democracy, important in overthrowing the elected government of Ukraine in 2014 that has led to a costly using of Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia. This has nearly destroyed Ukraine.

Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent bragged in a January 20 interview with Fox Business Anchor Mario Bartiromo at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and in his February 5 testimony to Congress that the U.S. deliberately triggered a currency crisis in Iran to damage its economy in an attempt to overthrown Iran’s theocratic leadership. So the U.S. is hurting the Iranian economy and people with sanctions and currency attacks to provoke popular protest and the overthrow of the Iranian government.

By the end of the first day, It was confirmed by the Iranians that  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed when an American or Israeli bomb or missile hit his home and office. He had refused to move to safety from his office, deciding to become a martyr if necessary. Killing the Ayatollah now seems to be a very serious mistake. Between 90 and 95 percent of Iran’s population is Shia Muslim. Contrary to Western intelligence-propaganda, Khamenei was widely revered by most. Rather than crumbling in defeat, they are strongly rallying to the cause of Shia Islam and Iranian tradition. Shia Muslims tend to accept suffering with endurance that could last for generations. Expecting a quick and painless victory over them is folly.

One important thing that needs to be understood about Islamic terrorism is the difference between Sunni and Shia terrorism. Sunni terrorism is generally not state terrorism. It is ideological terrorism often involving mass killings of a brutal and terrifying nature. Shia terrorism is usually state terrorism, typically assassinations for specific political purposes. The vast majority of Islamic terrorism is Sunni terrorism because 85 percent of Muslims are Sunnis, and Sunni terrorism tends to aim at mass truly terroristic impact. Shia Islam is only about 15 percent of Islam, and its terrorism is usually specifically targeted political assassination.

The first casualty of war is truth, and the propaganda is flying high and fast. However, there has been a tragedy in Iran that has been documented by several reputable sources that needs to be reported. Iranian children go to school on Saturdays. On February 28, American and Israeli missiles hit a girls’ elementary school in Minab in southern Iran. According to both the British Guardian and the Telegraph, 165 people, mostly children were killed. The Shajere Tayyebe Girl’s School was next to an IRGC barracks, pharmacy, and gym. The attack came at 9:00 AM, just as parents were delivering their children to the school.  

The Iranians claim they fired four ballistic missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln. The Pentagon has announced that Iranian missiles did not come close.

Trump continues to use the CIA demonizing strategy in describing the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling him “one of the most evil people in history.”  Former British diplomat and MI6 analyst Alastair Crooke who had met Khamenei and been in Khamenei’s office remarked today that Trump’s description is far from consistent with his own personal impression. In fact, I found the same description referring to his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in an Indian school text since revised with apologies. Trump is getting some misinformation and harmful advice on foreign policy and media announcements.   

Ayatollah Alireza Arafi has been selected as the Shia Guardian clerical member of the new three-member Leadership Council of Iran. Other members are Masoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, Chief Justice.

Meanwhile, Fox News commentators seemed to have changed Reagan’s “Peace through Strength” to “Peace through Preemptive War.”

One of the reasons I voted for Trump three times is that he has listened to the people on immigration policy, when it was being largely ignored by many Republicans and used by Democrats to change and destroy the country through radical economic, social, and political ideologies. Trump has also made some important economic changes that benefit the middle class, American workers, and the country.

However, I remain concerned that Trump is poorly advised on foreign policy and intelligence regarding both Ukraine and Iran. Lately he may be disproportionately influenced by Israeli Mossad intelligence, which has its own agenda. All the good Trump has done and is doing could be overturned and reversed by misguided foreign policy and military actions.