Iran War Commentary and Notes

“Truth Is the First Casualty of War”

On Truth and War

The origin of the quote, “Truth is the first casualty of war” is controversial. It is sometimes attributed in form to the Greek philosopher Aeschylus (c. 524-456 BC) but that cannot be documented. Aeschylus is documented to have said, “God is not averse to deceit in a just cause.” In 1950, columnist Malcolm W. Bingay gave caution to this: “Aeschylus said that ‘God is not averse to deceit in a holy cause.’ It takes very mild mental gymnastics to make any politician or statesman or soldier believe that his cause is holy and therefore proper to lie about.”

President John F. Kennedy’s notes, however, indicated he believed Aeschylus had said, “In war, truth is the first casualty.”  No matter who he attributed the phrase to, it is obvious from many of his actions an especially his speech at American University on June 6, 1963, that he was well aware of the dangers of distorting truth to justify belligerence, aggression, and war. Moreover, Kennedy noted these distortions frequently include dangerous and counterproductive false characterizations and demonization of leaders and peoples. The demonization and slander of targeted foreign leaders is virtually a hallmark of CIA and British MI6 covert and overt regime change attempts.

1963 JUN 06 President John F. Kennedy's - Peace Speech Transcript.pdf

Senator Hiram Johnson (R, CA) is said to have said in 1918: “The first casualty when war comes is truth.”

 Often-quoted British writer Samuel Johnson wrote in 1758:

“Among the calamities of War may be justly numbered the diminution of the love of truth, by the falsehoods which interest dictates and credulity encourages.”

Sometime between 1914 and 1915, British Member of Parliament Phillip Snowden said something like “Truth, it has been said, “is the first casualty of war.” Snowden wrote these words in an introduction to E. D. Morel’s 1916 book, Truth and the War.

“Truth, it has been said, “is the first casualty of war.” When hostilities break out the one object of each belligerent nation is victory. “All is fair in war,” and to secure and maintain national unity in support of the war every means are taken by the respective Governments to suppress criticism . . .”

In July 1915, Snowden’s wife,  Ethel Annakin, employed the saying with an anonymous attribution during a speech in San Diego, California.

The affirmation that truth is often suppressed or distorted in war is commonplace in Western history and probably more widely. I have recently seen the same wisdom attributed to Napoleon.  However, it is often incumbent on a nation’s leaders to raise public awareness of national security threats. Secrecy and military deception of an enemy may be existential to national survival. The choices may sometimes be difficult, and the truth difficult to discern. But lying, deception, and covering up important truths and realities to provoke war usually carry their own moral, economic, and humanitarian injuries to a nation’s character, welfare, and security.  

Commentary on Recent Developments.

Just a few hours after the February 28 U.S. and Israeli missile attacks on Iran, Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against 25 U.S. military and naval bases across the Middle East. These attacks were precise and according to satellite imagery did significant damage to U.S. radar, communications, infrastructure, and munition storage facilities. A billion dollar radar was destroyed at the Fifth Fleet Navy headquarters in Bahrain. Similar expensive radar systems were destroyed in Qatar and Jordan. U.S. military installations were also struck in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. British naval and air bases on Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea were also damaged. There was also some damage to civilian areas in Bahrain. The Iranian foreign ministry suggested they were related to CIA facilities.

A little geography might be helpful here. Iran borders on Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The Gulf States on the western side of the Persian Gulf are Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman.

Iran is 92 percent Shia Muslim. It may be significant that Bahrain, Azerbaijan, and Iraq are also majority Shia, and there are significant Shia minorities in Lebanon and Pakistan. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and has promised help to Iran if Israel uses nuclear weapons against Iran.

A CIA leak to its favorite leaking place, the Washington Post, put in the form of an article, suggested that Russian intelligence was behind the accuracy of Iranian missile and drone strikes in the Middle East. The Iranians are known to be advanced in missile and drone technology on their own, but it is no longer a secret that the Russians have increased technical help to Iran on missile accuracy. Russian intelligence help to Iran is not being denied. The Chinese are also contributing by openly publishing intelligence maps of Iran.

It should be noted that American satellite and electronic intelligence has been available to Ukraine in its proxy war against Russia for more than four years and has been a primary Ukrainian planning tool. It was evidently used for the Ukrainian drone attack in August 2025 attack on Novgorod, near one of Russian President Putin’s residences. Putin considers it an assassination attempt and may not have spoken to Trump since then.

Putin and Iranian President Pezeshkian have been consulting on restoring and improving Iran’s ties and Muslim-kinship with its Gulf and Middle East neighbors. The objective is probably to bring them into a BRICS alliance with Iran, Russia, and China, sharply reducing U.S. influence in the Gulf and Middle East. Russia may also give Iran more modern defensive missile systems like the S-400 and Su-35 interceptors, which the Russians believe is more than a match for the U.S. F-35 except in stealth. A Russian graduate of NC State speculates that the aircrews and technicians will look more Slavic than Iranian.

Iran’ s hope of surviving the massive American and Israeli attack on Iran is based on superior missile and drone technology, numbers, and production logistics; control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.; and the religious devotion and social endurance characteristic Shia Islam, and sympathy and help from the Muslim world generally.

President Erdogan of Turkey, also de facto leader of the Muslim Brotherhood,  has recently made statements critical of the United States, Israel, and their “unlawful” attack on Iran. Turkey is a major global military power. Erdogan is also upset with U.S. alliances with the Kurds, and recently allied with Iran in destroying a force of 500 Kurds threatening Iran. Yet there are some American allies of Israel who want to justify the attack on Iran as a religious war. This is a disastrous idea likely to spark a widespread Sunni Jihadic reaction.  

Missile and drone production logistics may determine the outcome of the Iran War. It seems we are ignoring and repeating the experience of the 12-day War ending June 24, 2025. In the 12-day War, the Iranians overwhelmed the Israeli Iron Dome of protective missiles with attacks of hundreds of drones, decoys, and older missiles. The Israeli Iron Dome missile supply ran so low after about a week that the Iranians could strike Israeli ports, infrastructure, airports, and civilian areas with little interference. Iran also had hypersonic missiles that were practically unstoppable. Neither the U.S. nor Israel is close to producing hypersonic missiles going more than five times the speed of sound, much less 10 to 12 times the speed of sound. After a week, Israel was on the verge of destruction by more and more unstoppable missiles and sophisticated drones.

Defensive missiles must be much more technically complex than attack missiles. It is like trying to hit a bullet with a bullet. Patriot System missiles cost from $3.7 to $6 million dollars each and two or more Patriots are fired to try and bring down an incoming missile or drone. Iran has 30,000 to 80,000 drones, built and stored and often fired from underground. Iranian drones cost an average of $35,000. The Hindustani Times estimates most of the hypersonic missiles Russia uses in Ukraine run from $1.5 to $2.5 million, with some of the latest and most powerful and expensive as much as $5.7 million. They estimate Iran has 3,000 to 6,000 missiles, but some estimate as high as 10,000. U.S. costs are much higher and production and production rates much lower. Moreover, although a Stanford University scientist estimates the Patriot has an 87 percent hit ratio,  MIT missile and nuclear expert Ted Postol recently estimated that the Patriot missile hit ratio was much lower.  MIT Prof Ted Postol: U.S. Iran Missile War  The math is discouraging unless the U.S. has been able to change the numbers since August 2025. Israel has now prohibited release of videos showing the missile battle and damage to Israel’s cities, airports, and infrastructure. Some videos, however, are getting through, and it looks like a repeat of August 2025 except Iran has some new and deadlier missiles.

There are other indications things are not going well for Israel. The population of Israel was 10.1 million in 2025. Israel is 72 percent Jewish, 21 percent Arab, and 7 percent other including some Christians. According to Col. Douglas Macgregor (USA ret) who has many military and civilian contacts in Israel, over 1.0 million people have fled the country.

A grave danger is that pressed to desperation, Israel’s present leadership will resort to nuclear weapons, loosing global holocaust. This is probably a factor in President Trump’s thinking.

Iran has only a small Navy, and as many of 11 of its larger ships have been destroyed. However, Iran has managed to close the Strait of Hormuz. This caused the price of crude oil per barrel to rise from $70.18 on March 1 to $90.90 on March 8, nearly 30 percent in a week. This is causing turmoil in nations like India and Japan that are very dependent on Persian Gulf oil. Even though most of Iran’s larger warships have been destroyed, they have several hundred missile carrying small patrol boats. Moreover, Iran can easily control the Strait with drones concealed in and fired from nearby coastal mountains. Iran is about 70 percent heavily forested mountains. Bringing U.S. Navy ships into the Persian Gulf could prove a disastrous turkey-shoot with little accuracy required. No sane Navy Admiral is going to put his ships into such a trap. Meanwhile, the U.S. media is celebrating that an unarmed Iranian Frigate returning from a training exercise with the Indian Navy was sunk by a submarine off the coast of Ceylon.

Japan is 72 percent dependent on Persian Gulf oil; South Korea 65 percent, India 50 percent, China 50 percent. They are turning to Russia, which will enjoy a landslide of wealth and global influence, corresponding to a loss of U.S. influence and trade.  Moreover, many economists are forecasting crude oil prices as high as $150.  

Further compounding higher oil prices and shortages, Trump’s high tariff policies are likely to hurt consumers and exporters. To put it in the simplest terms, if you put a 20 percent tariff on a $100 retail item, the U.S. government gets $20, but the consumer pays $120. Sound good? But the government will probably get less than the revenue it expected because fewer people will be willing to pay $120 for what did cost them only $100. Historical experience shows that U.S. exporters will be forced to adjust their prices downward to keep their export customers. Sometimes whole export markets are lost. Attempting to bully trade partners with a choice of compliance with our sanctions against whoever OR damaging high tariffs will rebound to a decline in our international influence and economic prosperity.    

Meanwhile, President Trump is demanding the unconditional surrender of Iran.  

In John F. Kennedy’s June 6, 1963, speech he referred to this Scripture:

“When a man’s ways please the Lord: he makes even his enemies to be at peace with him.” Proverbs 16:7 ESV

A  Cajun lagniappe

“Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.” Proverbs 16:18.